Cowboys hope to lasso Cyclones

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2007 - Stillwater, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 13th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys finish up a brief two-game homestand this weekend, as they play host to the Iowa State Cyclones in Big 12 action from the Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater.

The Cowboys moved to 3-2 in league play and 17-3 overall with a 66-61 win over rival Oklahoma on Monday.

The Cyclones are a game behind OSU in the standings at 2-3 and the team brings a three-game losing streak into Stillwater. The team hasn't played since last weekend, when it fell at home to Kansas State, 69-60.

The Cowboys hold a 56-51 advantage in the all-time series. Oklahoma State has won seven of the last eight meetings with ISU and has a 32-13 edge in games played at home in this series.

The Cyclones struggled with their shot, especially in the first half and trailed by 10 points at the break against Kansas State last weekend. The team did a little better in the second half, but could not overcome the deficit, falling by nine in the end. Mike Taylor did his best to lead the way to victory, as he scored 21 points to pace all Cyclones. Jiri Hubalek had a solid game as well, registering a double-double with 17 points and 10 boards. On the season, Iowa State has struggled offensively for the most part, averaging just 67.1 ppg, on a modest .419 shooting. Taylor has been the most consistent performer, averaging 16.7 ppg. However, his .382 shooting from the floor could certainly use some improvement. Wesley Johnson is one of the top freshmen in the league, averaging a near double-double with 12.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Hubalek has been a force up front as well, with 10.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per outing.

The Cowboys remained perfect at home with a solid win over the Sooners this week. Oklahoma State shot just .419 from the floor in the game, but outscored the visiting Sooners, 27-13 at the free-throw line in the victory. Byron Eaton led the offensive charge with a season-high 17 points. Three others joined him in double figures, with Mario Boggan putting up 13 points, followed by JamesOn Curry and David Monds, at 12 and 11 ppg, respectively. This season, Oklahoma State is averaging a steady 81.8 ppg, on nearly 50 percent shooting (.492) There may not be a better one-two punch in the nation than Boggan and Curry, who combine for nearly 40 points per game. Boggan leads the team in both scoring (21.0 ppg) and rebounding (7.7 rpg), while shooting .575 from the field. Curry is a perfect complement with his perimeter game, pouring in 18.8 ppg, while delivering on 43.3 percent from behind the arc (55-of-127). Terrel Harris provides another option offensively, at 10.8 ppg.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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